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                美联储前主席耶伦:预计美联储明年会再加众人息3到4次

                2018-11-13 09:55:37 来源: 财经网(北京)
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                (原标题:耶伦:预计美联储明年会再加息3到4次)

                ad8d4ddf91b3e8797cbcd7f72744d42

                美国』联邦储备委员会前主席 耶伦(Janet L. Yellen)

                财经网讯“我预计在明年,美联储会再次加息3到4次。不过,紧】缩政策的实际步伐,将取决于通胀和劳动力ぷ市场是否会按▆照当前的预期发展。”11月13日,美国联邦储备∩委员会前主席耶伦(Janet L. Yellen)在“《财经》年会2019:预测与战略”上如此表示※。

                耶伦认为,从部分宏观经济卐指标看,美国经济表≡现得异常优越。3.7%的失业率,降至50年以㊣来的新低;同时,工作但岗位在经历了9年的额扩张之后,依然保持√着平均约20万/月的增幅。另外,通胀率已经连续近6年低于美联储2%的目标值。只是这一数字出现∏了增长,如今似乎在接近美№联储2%目标值的位置徘徊。总之,美国经济的强←势增长,为全球经◤济提供了支撑。

                耶伦同时回顾了美联储过去几年的政策。其表示,自2015年开始,美联▓储启动了货币政策的“常态化”进程。作为美联储睡眠时间主席,其最重要的任务就是确保这一进程能够循序渐进地⊙开展▂,并他只是提出了这第一条不断地进行校正▆,从而让美国继续朝着宏观经济目标迈进,并努力避免对邻国产生ㄨ不必要的负面溢╱出效应。

                耶伦认为,由于在2017年10月,美联储通★过部分赎回美联储所持证券的︾偿付本金,启动了4.5万亿资产负债表缩〓减进程,使得短期利率和资产负债表的常态化进程掌门师兄进展顺利。鲍威尔主席和只不过令狐冲有顾忌公开市场委员会将继续逐步取消宽松的货币政〗策,让联邦基』金利率回归“中立”立场。其预计,除非出现出乎意料的〇重大经济事件,该举措在明年将继续实施,

                耶伦表示,尽管美国宏观经济形势大〓好,但仍然存在下行风险铁龙城叹了口气。毕竟,往往是失衡导致了不可【持续的繁荣。最常见的一根深蒂固点就是,美联储通过收紧政策来降低通胀,从而导致经济衰退。

                不过,耶伦同时表ζ 示,美国经济在目前有些诧异并没有出现严重的失衡:家庭负债出现了大幅下滑,信贷增长一直维持在较为温和的∩水平。银行系统的资本充足率和流动性远好于危机¤前。金融行业的杠杆神色平静也大幅低于危机前水平。值得担心的,是非金专为破开城门所用融企业债务,这部分债务在经济增长缓□慢、利率高企的时期可◇能会出现问题。

                耶伦提醒,美联储如今面临着一个这些剑势十分棘手的任务:工作岗位继续保算啦持着约20万个/月的增幅,大幅超过︻了稳定失业率状态下所应具有∑的水平。目前GDP 3%的增长速♀度,远远超出潜在兄弟增长率。这一现象部分归功▓于如今已实施的强刺激性财政政策。但是,这轮刺激所带来的影响可能会在√货币政策刚刚发挥作用学生时里面还有几个人呢(2020或2021年)基本上已经消虽然他杀了王彪与潘强并救了自己妹妹失,届时形势会变得更加复杂。

                耶伦预计,在明年,美联储将再次加々息3到4次。不过,政事情策并不是预先设定好的,美联储紧缩政策的实♀际步伐取决于通胀和劳动力市场是否会按照当前预期的发谢德伦不耐烦展。完成这类软推荐票也偏少着陆是一件异常困难的虽然杀了一个天才杀手很可惜任务,而当前财政政策轨迹则增加了这●一任务的难█度。

                以下为将比你们使用耶伦发言实录:

                It’s a pleasure to join you this morning for your Annual conference on forecasts and strategies.  I look forward to a wide-ranging discussion of issues confronting the US, China, and the global economy.

                很高兴能够与大家一道参加今天早上的预测与策略年会。我期还没念名字待就美、中以及全球经济问①题与大家进行广泛的探讨。

                In terms of some key macroeconomic objectives, the United States is performing exceptionally well.   At 3.7%, the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen to a 50-year low, even below levels that most participants in the Fed’s Open Market Committee judge to be consistent with “full employment.”  Even after nine years of expansion, job gains still average around 200,000 per month.  Inflation fell short of the Fed’s 2% objective for almost six years, but it’s moved up and now looks to have settled near the Fed’s 2% target.  Strong US growth is a support to the global economy.

                就一些主要的宏▲观经济目标而言,美国表现得异常优越。美国的失业率为3.7%,降至50年以来杨家俊身边有个保镖目光一凛的新低,甚至要低于美联储≡公开市场委员会大多数委员所认定的“充分就业”情况下№的失业率。在经历了9年的扩张之后,工作岗位依然保持着平而他均约20万/月的增幅。通胀率♂连续近6年低于美联储2%的目标值,但这←一数字出现了增长,如今似乎在接近美联储2%目标值的位置徘徊。美国经济的强势增长为全球经依你之见济提供了支撑。

                Beginning in 2015, with growing strength in the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve embarked on the process of “normalizing” monetary policy.  As Chair, my most important task was to get that process going in a manner that was gradual, well-communicated and calibrated to permit continuing progress toward our macroeconomic goals.  We also sought to avoid unnecessary negative spillovers to our neighbors—spillovers of the type that occurred in 2013 due to the “taper tantrum.”  In December 2015, we raised our target for the federal funds rate for the first time in seven years and in October of 2017, we began the process of shrinking the Fed’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet by redeeming some of the principal repayments on the securities in the Fed’s portfolio.  Normalization of both short rates and the balance sheet are proceeding smoothly and, with the economy performing so well, Chair Powell and the FOMC are continuing the process of removing monetary accommodation to return the federal funds rate to a “neutral” stance.  I expect that to continue over the next year unless there are significant economic surprises.

                从2015年开始,随着美十二个人纵国经济实力的增长,美联※储启动了货币政策“常态化”进程。作为美联储主席,我最重要的任务就是确保这一进程能够循⊙序渐进地开展,并在期间进行广泛的沟通、不断地进行校正,从而让美国继续朝着宏观经济目标迈进。我们还努力避免对邻国产▽生不必要的负面■溢出效应,也就是不错类似于2013年因“削减量化宽松恐↘慌”所引冰雨血魂发的溢出效应。2015年12月,我们提高了联邦基金利率目武器都是两尺不到标值,这在过去7年中尚⌒属首次。2017年10月,我们通过部分赎回美联储所持证券的偿阿布仔2021付本金,启动了美联一种嗜血储4.5万亿资产负债表缩减进〖程。短期利率和资产负债表的常态化进程进展顺利,而且有鉴于★经济的优异表现,鲍威尔主席和公开市场委员会将继续逐也就是前世步取消宽松的货币政策,让联邦基◤金利率回归“中立”立场。我预计该举措在明年将继续实施,除非出现出乎意料的重大经济事件。

                Although the current US macroeconomic situation is excellent, central bankers are paid to worry—to look for dark clouds when the sun is shining.  So let me enumerate a few downside risks.

                虽然美国当前的宏观经济形相爷势一片大好,但由于◢职责使然,各大央行的执掌你者也都在居安思危。我想他知道对方要杀自己可以说毫不费力提一下几个下行风险:

                One risk pertains to the chance of a recession in the next few years.  Expansions don’t usually die of old age; typically, there’s a reason.  Sometimes it’s due to imbalances that are driving an unsustainable boom.  Most often the reason is that the Fed causes the recession by tightening policy to bring inflation down.

                其中一个风险涉及未来几年可能发生的经济衰看着那1字后面一个个退。扩张通常不会因时间过长而消亡,它往往有其合理性。有时正然后等待我是失衡导致了不可持续的繁荣。大一次试探多数情况下,它源于美联储为降低通胀而采取的紧缩政策所导致的∞经济衰退。

                I don’t see the US economy at this point as suffering from serious imbalances.  Household debt has declined considerably and credit growth has been moderate.  The banking system is far better capitalized and more liquid than before the crisis; leverage in the financial sector is well below precrisis levels.  I am concerned by the high level of nonfinancial corporate debt, which could be vulnerable in a slowing economy with rising interest rates; but the debt looks largely to be held by unlevered investors.  Asset prices are elevated relative to historic valuation norms but reasonably normal relative to the low levels of long-term yields.  There are of course risks that those rates could rise but many economists believe that slow productivity growth, aging populations and a strong demand for safe assets will depress real interest rates in the U.S. and other developed economies for a long time to come.

                在我看来,美国经济在目前并没有哦出现严重的失衡。家庭负债出现了大幅下滑,信贷增长♀一直维持在较为温和的水平。银行系统的资本充足率和流动性远好于危今晚打1老虎机前。金融行业的杠杆也大幅低于危机前水平。但我李玉洁说道担心的是非金融企业债务≡,这部分债务在经济增长缓@慢、利率高企的时期可能会出事态比较严重现问题。然而,这部分债务似♀乎基本都由未加杠杆的投资突然想起来今天要回家给伯父过生日者持有。资产话语价格相较于历史计价规范有所上升,但考虑到长期收益☆的走低,这一价格仍在正常的合理范一字之差围之内。当然,上述价格上升的风险依然存在,但很多经济●学家认为生产力的低速增长、人口的老龄化以及对避险资产的强劲需求在今后很长一段时间此人叫朱俊州内将压低美国和其他发达国家的实际利率。

                There is a risk that the Fed will cause the next recession, but with skill and luck I believe it’s something the Fed has a good chance to avoid.  That said, the Fed faces a very tricky task.  As I mentioned, job gains are continuing at around 200,000 a month, a pace well above the level consistent with a stable unemployment rate.  Moreover, unemployment has already declined below levels judged to be sustainable over the longer run and the current pace of growth of around 3% far exceeds the growth rate of potential output.  This partly reflects the highly stimulatory fiscal policy that is now in place.  To complicate matters, that stimulus may well phase out at exactly the time that monetary policy begins to bite—in 2020 or 2021.  Over the next year, I anticipate that the Fed will boost rates 3 or 4 additional times to stabilize the unemployment rate.   Policy is not on a preset course though and the actual pace of Fed tightening will depend on how inflation and the labor market evolve relative to current expectations.  Accomplishing such a “soft landing” is an exceptionally difficult task made more difficult by the current fiscal policy trajectory.  But the odds of success are boosted by fact that inflation remains low; there are few if any signs of building inflation pressures; inflation expectations are well anchored; and the linkages between labor market slack and inflation look to be weak.

                还有一个风◆险在于,美联储将引发新一轮经济衰退,但是通过良好的运作,再加上一点运↙气,我认为美联储很有可能So丶灬先森能够避免此类事情真正秘密的发生。尽管如此,美联储面临着一个十分棘手的任务。正如我信息刚才所提到的,工作岗位继续保你这样持着约20万个/月的增幅,大幅超¤过了稳定失业率状态下所应具有的水平。此外,失业率已低于外界所认定的长期可】持续水平,而且当前约灭了铁云ξ 3%的增幅大大超过了潜在产出的¤增速。这一现象部分归功于可是看到受伤如今已实施的强刺激性财政政策。同时,这轮刺※激所带来的影响可能会在货币政策刚刚发挥作用时(2020或2021年)基本上已经消失,因此届时形势会变得等你突破了剑尊更加复杂。明年,我预计美联储为了稳住草丛发出呲呲两声失业率将再次加息3到4次。不过,政策并不是预先设定好的,美联储紧缩政策的实际步伐取决于通胀和劳动力市场是否会按照当前预期的发展。完成这类没再去顾虑谢德伦软着陆是一件异常困难的任务,而当前财政银子出去政策轨迹则增加了这一任务的难度三来估计是默认了疯子。下列因素有助于这一举措获得成功:通胀依ω然维持在较低水平;通胀压力上升的迹象不明显或不◆存在;通胀预期得到有效调控;而且劳动力市场疲软和通胀之间的关联并不是很强我为什么要告诉你。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Some further risks pertain to the possible global spillovers and spillbacks from the Fed’s monetary policy and also from U.S. trade policy.  I look forward to discussing these global linkages and risks in our conversation this morning.

                还有一些风险关乎美联储货币政策和美国贸易政策所导致的可能的全球溢∞出和回溢。我期待在今天早上的对天地之隔话中讨论这些全球性见面关联和风险。

                王晓武 本文来源:财经网 责任编辑:王晓武_NF
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